England vs Spain Prediction, Tips & Correct Score
Updated: Sep 26
England vs Spain is the standout fixture of the September international window: the 2026 World Cup winners against the side that finished third in North America, live from a sold-out Wembley on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 BST. It is Matchday 1 of UEFA Nations League A, Group A3. Our prediction: England 1-2 Spain, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals. Here is the full data-led breakdown.
England vs Spain, Wembley Stadium, Saturday 26 September 2026 - our AI correct score call is 1-2 to the world champions.
Want the same model output for every fixture on the card, not just the headline game? Start with the Mad Football Prediction AI Software (GBP 82) and scale up from there.
England vs Spain: match information
Detail | Information |
Fixture | England vs Spain |
Competition | UEFA Nations League A, Group A3, Matchday 1 |
Date | Saturday 26 September 2026 |
Kick-off | 19:45 BST / 20:45 CEST |
Venue | Wembley Stadium, London (sold out) |
England head coach | Thomas Tuchel |
Spain head coach | Luis de la Fuente |
Reverse fixture | Spain vs England, Madrid, 15 November 2026 |
Our prediction | England 1-2 Spain |
Group A3 also contains Croatia and Czechia. The top two go through to the quarter-finals in March 2027, so a Wembley defeat here is far from fatal - but in a four-team group played over six matches, the head-to-head with the group's strongest side usually decides first place. Full fixture details are published by UEFA and by Wembley Stadium.
England form guide: 20 goals scored, 12 conceded
Date | Match | Stage | Result |
17 Jun 2026 | England 4-2 Croatia | World Cup, Group L | W |
23 Jun 2026 | England 0-0 Ghana | World Cup, Group L | D |
27 Jun 2026 | Panama 0-2 England | World Cup, Group L | W |
1 Jul 2026 | England 2-1 DR Congo | World Cup, Round of 32 | W |
6 Jul 2026 | Mexico 2-3 England | World Cup, Round of 16 | W |
11 Jul 2026 | Norway 1-2 England (aet) | World Cup, Quarter-final | W |
15 Jul 2026 | England 1-2 Argentina | World Cup, Semi-final | L |
18 Jul 2026 | France 4-6 England | Third-place play-off | W |
Thomas Tuchel's England were the tournament's best watch and its least tidy defence. Six wins, one draw, one defeat from eight, 20 goals scored - but 12 conceded and only two clean sheets. Jude Bellingham scored twice in the 3-2 win over Mexico and twice again in the extra-time quarter-final win over Norway, while Bukayo Saka's hat-trick in the 6-4 third-place win over France closed the summer out.
The warning inside that record: England conceded four to France, two to Argentina and two to Mexico - every time they met a side that could move the ball quickly through midfield. Spain do that better than anyone. Full results are listed on the England FA fixtures and results page.
Spain form guide: one goal conceded in eight World Cup matches
Date | Match | Stage | Result |
15 Jun 2026 | Spain 0-0 Cape Verde | World Cup, Group H | D |
21 Jun 2026 | Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | World Cup, Group H | W |
26 Jun 2026 | Spain 1-0 Uruguay | World Cup, Group H | W |
2 Jul 2026 | Spain 3-0 Austria | World Cup, Round of 32 | W |
6 Jul 2026 | Spain 1-0 Portugal | World Cup, Round of 16 | W |
10 Jul 2026 | Spain 2-1 Belgium | World Cup, Quarter-final | W |
14 Jul 2026 | Spain 2-0 France | World Cup, Semi-final | W |
19 Jul 2026 | Spain 1-0 Argentina (aet) | World Cup final | W |
This is the number that should shape every bet on this match: Spain played eight World Cup matches and conceded one goal - Belgium's consolation in the quarter-final. Seven clean sheets in eight, and they never trailed in the entire tournament. Mikel Merino scored the 90+1st-minute winner against Portugal, and Ferran Torres settled the final against Argentina in the 106th minute in front of 80,663 at MetLife Stadium.
The counterweight: Spain were efficient rather than explosive. Fourteen goals in eight games, four of which came in one afternoon against Saudi Arabia. Strip that out and it is 10 goals in seven knockout-quality matches. They win 1-0 and 2-0 far more often than they win 4-1, which is exactly why the under 2.5 goals market is live here despite England's own shoot-out habits. Coverage of the final is available from CBS News.
England vs Spain head-to-head record
Date | Fixture | Competition | Winner |
14 Jul 2024 | Spain 2-1 England | Euro 2024 final | Spain |
15 Oct 2018 | Spain 2-3 England | Nations League | England |
8 Sep 2018 | England 1-2 Spain | Nations League | Spain |
15 Nov 2016 | England 2-2 Spain | Friendly | Draw |
13 Nov 2015 | Spain 2-0 England | Friendly | Spain |
12 Nov 2011 | England 1-0 Spain | Friendly | England |
All-time the record still favours England - 28 meetings, 14 England wins, 3 draws, 11 Spain wins - but almost all of that credit was banked before 1990. In the last five meetings England have won once: the 3-2 comeback in Seville in October 2018. Spain have won three of the last five, including the Euro 2024 final. The last Wembley meeting was England 1-2 Spain in September 2018. Full head-to-head data via 11v11.
Team news: five England withdrawals, two Spain returns
Team | Unavailable | Detail |
England | Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo, Tino Livramento | All five withdrew from the squad on 21 September |
England | Phil Foden | Not selected for this window |
England | Called up | James Garner and Morgan Gibbs-White added as replacements |
Spain | Gavi | Out; Fermin Lopez called up in his place |
Spain | Joan Garcia | Knee injury; Josep Martinez added to the goalkeeping group |
Spain | Returning | Dean Huijsen and Fermin Lopez back after World Cup omissions |
This is the single biggest swing factor. England lose Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo and Cole Palmer in one window - the holding midfielder, his understudy, and the most creative No 10 in the squad. Tuchel is left leaning on Jude Bellingham, Elliot Anderson, Myles Lewis-Skelly, James Garner, Morgan Gibbs-White and Alex Scott against a Spain midfield of Rodri, Pedri, Martin Zubimendi, Fabian Ruiz and Mikel Merino. Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Eberechi Eze and Anthony Gordon carry the attack; teenage winger Rio Ngumoha is in the squad for the first time.
Spain's 26 is close to the World Cup-winning group, with Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo, Mikel Oyarzabal and Ferran Torres all available and Dean Huijsen restored at centre-back. Squad details from the England FA and Goal.
Always check the confirmed line-ups around 18:45 BST before placing any bet - late withdrawals in international weeks are common.
England vs Spain key stats comparison
Metric | England | Spain |
World Cup 2026 finish | Third | Winners |
World Cup record | W6 D1 L1 | W7 D1 L0 |
Goals scored (8 games) | 20 | 14 |
Goals conceded (8 games) | 12 | 1 |
Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.13 |
Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals | 5 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
All-time wins in this fixture | 14 | 11 |
Wins in last 5 meetings | 1 | 3 |
Two teams pulling the goal line in opposite directions. England have gone over 2.5 goals in all five of their most recent matches; Spain in only two of five. Something has to give, and that tension is why our tips table below splits between a both teams to score lean and an honest note that under 2.5 is the sharper-looking side of the total.
England vs Spain odds and implied probability
Outcome | Decimal odds | Implied % | Vig-free % |
England win | 2.75 | 36.4% | 34.1% |
Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 28.4% |
Spain win | 2.50 | 40.0% | 37.5% |
Odds sampled from Wincomparator on 23 September 2026. The overround is 106.7%; stripping the margin leaves Spain a 37.5% favourite against England's 34.1% - barely a favourite at all. Squawka quoted a best price of +158 (2.58) on Spain, -143 (1.70) on both teams to score and +900 (10.00) on a 2-1 Spain win.
Market | Selection | Decimal odds |
Total goals | Over 2.5 | 1.82 |
Total goals | Under 2.5 | 1.92 |
Both teams to score | Yes | 1.63 |
Both teams to score | No | 2.10 |
Prices move. Every figure above is a snapshot taken on 23 September 2026 and will differ from what you see at kick-off - always re-check before staking.
Where the public models land: Squawka calls it England 1-2 Spain with both teams scoring. FootballPredictions.com goes England 2-2 Spain. Goal's preview leans to Spain on the strength of the World Cup defensive record. Note that these are three genuinely different outputs rather than one feed repeated - the spread between 1-2, 2-2 and a narrow Spain win is the honest uncertainty in this fixture.
England vs Spain prediction: England 1-2 Spain
Our correct score prediction is England 1-2 Spain. Five reasons:
Spain's defensive record is not a small edge, it is a chasm. One goal conceded in eight World Cup matches against England's twelve. Per game that is 0.13 versus 1.50.
England's midfield has been gutted. Rice, Mainoo and Palmer all withdrew on 21 September. Facing Rodri, Pedri and Zubimendi without your first-choice holder is the worst possible week for that to happen.
Spain travel with a full attack. Yamal, Nico Williams, Olmo, Oyarzabal and Ferran Torres are all fit and available; Huijsen returns to shore up the back line.
England still score. They found the net in seven of eight World Cup games and put six past France. At a sold-out Wembley they will not be blanked easily - hence 1-2 rather than 0-2.
The trend in this fixture. Spain have won three of the last five meetings, England one. England have not beaten Spain since October 2018.
England vs Spain betting tips
Market | Selection | Reasoning | Confidence |
Correct score | England 1-2 Spain | Spain's control plus England's leaky World Cup defence | Medium |
Match result | Spain win | Market makes them only a 37.5% chance; the underlying numbers say more | Medium |
Double chance | Spain or draw | Lower-variance version of the main call | Medium-high |
Both teams to score | Yes | England scored in 7 of 8 World Cup games and are at home | Medium |
Total goals | Over 2.5 | England's last five all went over; note Spain's games lean under | Low-medium |
Team total | Spain over 1.5 goals | England have kept two clean sheets in eight | Medium |
Backup score | England 1-1 Spain | If Tuchel sets up cautiously, a low-scoring draw is very live | Medium |
Avoid | England clean sheet | Two clean sheets in eight games, against the world champions | - |
The honest risk: the market is close to a three-way coin flip and the draw is priced at a real 28.4%. Spain's own matches trend under 2.5 goals, so backing both 'Spain win' and 'over 2.5' is internally in tension - if you only take one, take the result. And England at a sold-out Wembley with Bellingham, Saka and Kane is not a side you want to be laying at 2.75. Treat 1-2 as the most likely single scoreline, not a likely one: no correct score in a match this even should be rated much above 10%.
Get AI correct score predictions for every match
The breakdown above is what one fixture looks like when it is worked properly. Our software does it across every league, every day - form weighting, expected goals, head-to-head, team news and market pricing rolled into a single correct score output.
Mad Football Prediction AI Software - GBP 82: the cheapest way to test the model for a week of accumulators.
Euro Football Prediction Software - GBP 91: built for European competition and international football, exactly like this Nations League round.
AI Football for Correct Score - GBP 99: correct score probabilities ranked per fixture.
Correct Score Football Software - GBP 132: the full package, with the deepest scoreline distribution.
Compare everything side by side on the full AI football software catalogue.
England vs Spain: frequently asked questions
What time does England vs Spain kick off?
England vs Spain kicks off at 19:45 BST (20:45 CEST) on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Wembley Stadium, London. The match is sold out.
What is the England vs Spain prediction?
Our prediction is England 1-2 Spain, with both teams to score. The backup scoreline is 1-1, and the lower-variance play is Spain or the draw.
Who is the favourite for England vs Spain?
Spain, but only narrowly. At 2.50 against England's 2.75, the vig-free probabilities are Spain 37.5%, England 34.1%, draw 28.4% - close to a three-way coin flip.
What competition is England vs Spain?
It is Matchday 1 of UEFA Nations League A, Group A3, which also contains Croatia and Czechia. The top two advance to the quarter-finals in March 2027.
When did England last beat Spain?
On 15 October 2018, when England came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in Seville in the Nations League. Spain have won three of the five meetings since 2015, including the Euro 2024 final.
Will both teams score in England vs Spain?
We lean yes. Spain conceded just once in eight World Cup matches, but England scored in seven of their own eight and are at home. Both teams to score - yes was priced around 1.63 to 1.70.
Who is missing for England vs Spain?
England are without Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento, all of whom withdrew on 21 September, plus the unselected Phil Foden. Spain are missing Gavi and the injured Joan Garcia.
Sources and further reading
18+ only. Betting predictions are opinion, not certainty, and no model can guarantee a result. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.