Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction & Correct Score Tips
Updated: Sep 24
Bournemouth vs Liverpool closes the Sunday card in Premier League matchweek 5, and it comes with a subplot the fixture list could not have written better: Andoni Iraola returns to the Vitality Stadium for the first time as Liverpool head coach, against the squad he spent three seasons building. Kick-off is 14:00 BST on Sunday 20 September 2026.
Our Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction is 1-2 Liverpool — both teams to score, over 2.5 goals. Below you get the full picture: current form, head-to-head, confirmed team news, the numbers that actually move this market, live odds with implied probability, and the reasoning behind the correct score.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool: match information
Detail | Information |
Fixture | AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool |
Competition | Premier League 2026/27, matchweek 5 |
Date | Sunday 20 September 2026 |
Kick-off | 14:00 BST (13:00 GMT / 15:00 CET / 09:00 ET / 16:00 EAT) |
Venue | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth (capacity approx. 11,300) |
UK TV | Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Ultra HDR |
Bournemouth | 15th, 3 points (W0 D3 L1) |
Liverpool | 8th, 6 points (W1 D3 L0) |
Home coach | Marco Rose |
Away coach | Andoni Iraola (ex-Bournemouth) |
Our prediction | Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool |
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Bournemouth form 2026/27
Date | Competition | Match | Result |
Sat 12 Sep | Premier League | Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford (H) | D |
Tue 8 Sep | Carabao Cup R3 | Bournemouth 4-0 Lincoln City (H) | W |
Sat 5 Sep | Premier League | Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth (A) | D |
Sat 29 Aug | Premier League | Bournemouth 1-1 Everton (H) | D |
Sun 23 Aug | Premier League | Man City 2-1 Bournemouth (A) | L |
Marco Rose has inherited a side that is hard to beat and impossible to trust. Bournemouth have drawn three of their four league games and lost the other, and they have scored in every single one — six goals in four. The problem is the other end: zero clean sheets, seven conceded, including a 2-0 lead thrown away against Brentford at home and a 2-2 at Newcastle from a winning position.
There is also a schedule issue that most previews are ignoring. Bournemouth played Europa League matchday one away at Real Sociedad on Thursday 17 September — a round trip to San Sebastián and a three-day turnaround into a 14:00 Sunday kick-off. That is the single biggest fixture-list disadvantage either side carries into this game.
Liverpool form 2026/27
Date | Competition | Match | Result |
Tue 15 Sep | Carabao Cup R3 | Liverpool 3-1 Tottenham (H) | W |
Sat 12 Sep | Premier League | Liverpool 0-0 Fulham (H) | D |
Wed 9 Sep | Champions League MD1 | Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid (H) | W |
Fri 4 Sep | Premier League | Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool (A) | W |
Sat 29 Aug | Premier League | Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest (H) | D |
Sun 23 Aug | Premier League | Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool (A) | D |
Iraola's Liverpool are unbeaten in all competitions and have conceded only four league goals in four games, with two clean sheets. What they have not done is turn control into wins — three of their four league matches have finished level, which is exactly why they sit 8th with six points despite losing nothing.
Alexander Isak has three league goals already. Cody Gakpo is back from injury. And critically for Sunday, Liverpool's midweek was a home cup tie on Tuesday — five clear days before this game, against Bournemouth's three.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool head-to-head
Date | Competition | Result |
24 Jan 2026 | Premier League | Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool |
15 Aug 2025 | Premier League | Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth |
1 Feb 2025 | Premier League | Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool |
21 Sep 2024 | Premier League | Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth |
21 Jan 2024 | Premier League | Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool |
Liverpool have won four of the last five, outscoring Bournemouth 15-5 across those games. But the most recent meeting is the one that matters most to this market: Bournemouth won it 3-2 at the Vitality in January 2026. Twenty goals in five meetings is an average of 4.0 per game, and over 2.5 goals has landed in four of the five.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool team news and injuries
Team | Out | Doubtful | Back available |
Bournemouth | Julian Araujo (thigh), Eli Junior Kroupi (ankle), Amine Adli (calf), Veljko Milosavljevic (knee) | Tyler Adams | — |
Liverpool | Conor Bradley (knee), Giovanni Leoni (knee), Hugo Ekitike (calf), Federico Chiesa (back), Vitezslav Jaros | Joe Gomez | Cody Gakpo |
Bournemouth's absences are concentrated in the areas Rose can least afford: Araujo at full-back and Kroupi and Adli in the forward line, on a week where he also has to rotate after a European away trip. Liverpool's list is longer but shallower — Bradley and Leoni are the only defensive regulars missing, and Gakpo's return gives Iraola a genuine alternative alongside Isak. Neither side has a suspension.
Team news moves fast. Confirmed line-ups land roughly an hour before kick-off — always re-check before you place anything.
Key stats behind this Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction
Stat | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
League position | 15th | 8th |
Points from 4 games | 3 (W0 D3 L1) | 6 (W1 D3 L0) |
Goals for / against | 6 / 7 | 6 / 4 |
League clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
Games scored in (league) | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
Games conceded in (league) | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
League games drawn | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
Top scorer 2026/27 | Marcus Tavernier (3) | Alexander Isak (3) |
Rest days before kick-off | 3 (away in Spain) | 5 (home cup tie) |
Last 5 meetings | 1 win | 4 wins |
Two lines in that table decide the shape of the game: Bournemouth have conceded in every league match, and Liverpool have two more days of recovery. Everything else is noise around those. If you want this kind of form-and-fatigue modelling run automatically across the full weekend card, AI Football for Correct Score (£99) does exactly that, with half-time and full-time score analysis built in.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool odds and implied probability
Market | Decimal | American | Implied probability |
Bournemouth win | 3.06 | +206 | 32.7% |
Draw | approx. 4.00 | approx. +300 | approx. 25% |
Liverpool win | 2.11 | +111 | 47.4% |
Over 3.5 goals | 2.15 | +115 | 46.5% |
Under 3.5 goals | 1.67 | -149 | 59.9% |
No draw price was published on the sources checked at the time of writing. The approx. 4.00 figure is derived from the two published match-result prices plus a typical bookmaker margin, and is marked as an estimate rather than a quoted price. Always confirm the live price before betting.
What stands out is how short Bournemouth are for a side without a win. The models do not fully agree either: Squawka's rates Liverpool at 41% against a market price of roughly 46%, Forebet has it 43% Liverpool with a 39% draw chance and a 1-3 correct score, and WhoScored's preview lands on 3-2 Liverpool. The consensus is a Liverpool win; the disagreement is entirely about the margin — which is the argument for backing a narrow scoreline rather than a handicap.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction: 1-2 Liverpool
Five reasons this lands where it does:
Rest and travel break decisively for Liverpool. Bournemouth flew to San Sebastián for Europa League matchday one on Thursday 17 September and have three days to recover. Liverpool played a home cup tie on Tuesday and have five. In a 14:00 Sunday kick-off, that gap shows in the last 25 minutes.
Bournemouth cannot keep the ball out. Zero clean sheets in four league games and seven conceded. They have also surrendered leads twice already this season. A side that concedes every week does not suddenly shut out a front line containing Isak and Gakpo.
Liverpool's issue is finishing games, not defending them. Unbeaten, four conceded, two clean sheets — the draws have come from a lack of a second goal, not from leaking. Against the league's most generous defence, that is the problem most likely to solve itself.
This fixture is reliably high-scoring. Twenty goals across the last five meetings, over 2.5 landing in four of them. Nothing in either side's current profile suggests a low-scoring afternoon.
But Bournemouth at home are live, which is why it is not 0-3. They won this exact fixture 3-2 eight months ago, they have scored in every league game, and the market has them at just 3.06. A one-goal Liverpool win with both teams scoring fits the evidence better than a comfortable one.
Final score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool.
Market | Selection | Confidence |
Correct score (main) | Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool | *** |
Alternative scores | Bournemouth 1-3 Liverpool / 2-2 | ** |
Match result | Liverpool win | *** |
Lower variance | Liverpool double chance (X2) + over 1.5 goals | **** |
Both teams to score | Yes | *** |
Value angle | Liverpool win & over 2.5 goals | ** |
One honest caveat on both teams to score: it has landed in only two of the last five meetings in this fixture, because Bournemouth blanked three times between 2024 and early 2025. The case for BTTS here rests on this season's form — Bournemouth scoring in all four league games — not on the head-to-head.
Correct score is the hardest market in football to hit consistently by hand, which is the whole reason our Correct Score Football Software (£132) exists — it runs 1X2, BTTS and correct score forecasts across the full fixture list automatically, for twelve months on a single payment.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool: frequently asked questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Liverpool kick off?
Bournemouth v Liverpool kicks off at 14:00 BST on Sunday 20 September 2026 at the Vitality Stadium. That is 13:00 GMT, 15:00 CET, 09:00 ET and 16:00 EAT.
Is Bournemouth vs Liverpool live on TV in the UK?
Yes. The match is shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Ultra HDR, as a Sunday 14:00 selection outside the Saturday 3pm blackout window.
What is our Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction?
Our prediction is Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. Liverpool are unbeaten and have an extra two days of rest; Bournemouth have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favourites at around 2.11 (+111), an implied probability of roughly 47%. Bournemouth are around 3.06 (+206), roughly 33%. It is a shorter-than-usual price for Liverpool away from home.
What is the Bournemouth vs Liverpool head-to-head record?
Liverpool have won four of the last five league meetings. Bournemouth's one win came most recently, 3-2 at the Vitality Stadium in January 2026. Those five games produced 20 goals between them.
Who is injured for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Bournemouth are without Julian Araujo, Eli Junior Kroupi, Amine Adli and Veljko Milosavljevic, with Tyler Adams a doubt. Liverpool are missing Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Hugo Ekitike, Federico Chiesa and Vitezslav Jaros, with Joe Gomez rated a doubt. Cody Gakpo is back available.
Why is Andoni Iraola's return to Bournemouth a big deal?
Iraola managed Bournemouth for three seasons before taking the Liverpool job in summer 2026. Sunday is his first return to the Vitality Stadium as an opposition manager, against a squad he largely assembled.
Sources and responsible gambling
Every figure above was checked against live sources on 17 September 2026:
Premier League — official table (league positions, points, goal records)
Football Web Pages — Premier League fixtures & results (fixtures, scorelines, attendances)
Live Football on TV — Premier League TV schedule (UK broadcast confirmation)
FOX Sports match page (odds and total goals lines)
Forebet — match probabilities and head-to-head (model probabilities, previous meetings)
Vitality Stadium — Wikipedia (venue and capacity)
Browse the full range in all football softwares if you want the prediction engine rather than the weekly write-up.
18+ only. Predictions are opinion, not certainty, and no software or tipster can guarantee a result. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
Understand the correct-score probabilities
For the broader method and its limitations, read our correct-score football prediction guide. It explains how to interpret model estimates and review evidence without assuming a guaranteed result.
Result update: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool
The match finished Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday 20 September 2026. The away win landed, the under 2.5 goals side of the total landed, and both teams to score did not. For the next fixture our model has flagged, see our England vs Spain prediction.
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