Leeds United vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Tips & Correct Score
Updated: Sep 24
Leeds United host Crystal Palace at Elland Road on Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 BST, in Premier League matchweek 5. Our prediction is Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace — an unbeaten, in-form home side against a Palace team with the worst defensive record in the division, arriving on a three-day turnaround from Thursday night European football. Below you will find full form guides, head-to-head data, confirmed team news, market prices, model probabilities and our correct score tips.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Premier League matchweek 5 — Elland Road, Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 BST.
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Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: match information
Detail | Information |
Competition | Premier League 2026/27, matchweek 5 |
Date | Sunday 20 September 2026 |
Kick-off | 14:00 BST (09:00 ET) |
Venue | Elland Road, Leeds |
TV | Sky Sports (UK) |
Leeds United manager | Daniel Farke |
Crystal Palace manager | Pierre Sage |
League position | Leeds 3rd (8 pts) · Palace 16th (3 pts) |
Our prediction | Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace |
Both clubs go into this one after very different midweeks. Leeds have had six clear days since beating Newcastle; Palace played their first ever Europa League match on Thursday 17 September. Confirm the exact kick-off and broadcast details on the official Premier League matchweek 5 page before the game.
Leeds United form guide
Date | Comp | Fixture | Result | Venue |
22 Aug | PL | Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United | W | Away |
25 Aug | EFL R2 | Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds United | W | Away |
30 Aug | PL | Leeds United 1-1 Brentford | D | Home |
5 Sep | PL | Brighton 1-1 Leeds United | D | Away |
9 Sep | EFL R3 | Chelsea 6-3 Leeds United | L | Away |
14 Sep | PL | Leeds United 4-1 Newcastle United | W | Home |
Leeds are unbeaten in the Premier League — two wins and two draws from four, 7 goals scored and just 3 conceded, good enough for third place. Daniel Farke's side have scored in every league game they have played this season, and Monday night's 4-1 demolition of Newcastle United at Elland Road was the most convincing performance by any promoted-era Leeds team in this fixture list: Tanaka opened it, Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored twice, and Noah Okafor finished it off.
The one blot is the 6-3 EFL Cup defeat at Chelsea on 9 September, a nine-goal night that knocked Leeds out of the competition. It is worth keeping in perspective — a heavily rotated side that still scored three at Stamford Bridge — but it does show that this Leeds team can be got at when the game opens up. That matters for the goals markets more than for the result market.
At home in the league Leeds have taken four points from six (a 1-1 draw with Brentford and the Newcastle win), and being out of the cups means a full week of preparation for a Sunday afternoon fixture. Full fixture and result data is published on Football Web Pages.
Crystal Palace form guide
Date | Comp | Fixture | Result | Venue |
22 Aug | PL | Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace | L | Away |
28 Aug | PL | Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City | L | Home |
5 Sep | PL | Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace | W | Away |
8 Sep | EFL R3 | Crystal Palace 3-0 Middlesbrough | W | Home |
12 Sep | PL | Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich Town | L | Home |
17 Sep | UEL | Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznań | W | Home |
Pierre Sage's first weeks in charge have produced a strange split. In cup football Palace look excellent — 3-0 past Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup and a 4-0 win over Polish champions Lech Poznań on their Europa League debut, with Yeremy Pino, Chris Richards, Jørgen Strand Larsen (penalty) and Eddie Nketiah all scoring. In the league they have lost three of four and sit 16th.
The defensive numbers are the headline: 11 goals conceded in four Premier League games is the worst record in the division, and Palace have failed to keep a single league clean sheet. They leaked four at home to Manchester City and three at home to Ipswich Town. The attack is not the problem — six league goals and four more against Lech — but the balance is.
The scheduling is the other issue. Palace played on Thursday evening and now travel to West Yorkshire for a Sunday 14:00 kick-off — roughly a 68-hour turnaround plus the journey. Sage rotated late on Thursday (Nketiah and Ismaïla Sarr came off the bench) but the core of the side played, as the club's own match report confirms.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace head-to-head record
Date | Fixture | Result | Competition |
15 Mar 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds United | Draw | Premier League |
20 Dec 2025 | Leeds United 4-1 Crystal Palace | Leeds | Premier League |
9 Apr 2023 | Leeds United 1-5 Crystal Palace | Palace | Premier League |
9 Oct 2022 | Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds United | Palace | Premier League |
25 Apr 2022 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds United | Draw | Premier League |
30 Nov 2021 | Leeds United 1-0 Crystal Palace | Leeds | Premier League |
8 Feb 2021 | Leeds United 2-0 Crystal Palace | Leeds | Premier League |
The venue split is the story here. In the last five meetings at Elland Road, Leeds have won four and lost one — and the single defeat, 5-1 in April 2023, came in a relegation season under a different manager and a different squad. Over the same period Palace have never won in Leeds under the current ownership era's league meetings other than that 2023 outlier.
The two most recent meetings are the most relevant: a 4-1 Leeds win at Elland Road in December 2025 and a 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park in March 2026. That is the pattern this fixture keeps repeating — Leeds comfortable at home, tight and low-scoring in London. The complete record is available at 11v11.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace team news
Team | Player | Issue | Status |
Leeds United | Joe Rodon | Thigh | Out |
Leeds United | Mateo Joseph | ACL | Out (until 2027) |
Leeds United | Ilia Gruev | Returning from injury | Doubt |
Crystal Palace | Axel Disasi | Suspended (red card v Ipswich) | Out |
Crystal Palace | Chadi Riad | ACL / knee | Out (season) |
Crystal Palace | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Hamstring / thigh | Out |
Crystal Palace | Dean Henderson | Foot | Out |
Crystal Palace | Eddie Nketiah | Fitness | Doubt |
Crystal Palace | Ismaïla Sarr | Groin | Doubt |
The imbalance is stark. Leeds came through the Newcastle game without fresh problems and are missing two players; Palace are without six or seven, and four of them are defenders or the first-choice goalkeeper. Axel Disasi serves a suspension for the straight red he was shown against Ipswich, Chadi Riad is out for the season, and Dean Henderson's foot injury leaves the goalkeeping position to a deputy. Jean-Philippe Mateta's absence removes the striker who has carried Palace's attack for two seasons.
On the plus side for the visitors, Ismaïla Sarr made his first appearance of the season off the bench against Lech Poznań and Eddie Nketiah scored in the same game, so both doubts are trending the right way. Ilia Gruev has played for the Leeds U-21s but is expected to be held back. Details via the Yorkshire Evening Post.
Team news moves quickly — always check the confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off before placing any bet.
Key stats comparison
Metric (Premier League, 2026/27) | Leeds United | Crystal Palace |
League position | 3rd | 16th |
Record (P4) | W2 D2 L0 | W1 D0 L3 |
Points | 8 | 3 |
Goals scored | 7 | 6 |
Goals conceded | 3 | 11 (most in the division) |
Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Games scored in | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
Games conceded in | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Home / away split | Home: W1 D1 | Away: W1 L1 |
Last 6, all competitions | W3 D2 L1 | W3 D0 L3 |
Rest since last match | 6 days | 3 days (Europa League) |
Two numbers dominate everything else in this preview: Leeds have conceded three goals in four league games, and Palace have conceded eleven. That is the widest defensive gap of any Premier League fixture this weekend, and it sits on top of a three-day turnaround and four defensive absentees for the visiting side.
The counter-argument is real, though. Palace have scored in three of four league games, put four past Lech Poznań, and Leeds have shipped six in a single cup tie this month. This is not a fixture that screams clean sheet — it is a fixture that screams home win with goals in it.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace odds and implied probability
Outcome | Decimal | American | Implied % | Vig-free % |
Leeds United | 1.79 | -127 | 55.9% | 54.0% |
Draw | 3.86 | +286 | 25.9% | 25.0% |
Crystal Palace | 4.60 | +360 | 21.7% | 21.0% |
Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | -137 | 57.8% | — |
Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +110 | 47.6% | — |
Prices shown are indicative and were taken during the build of this article from publicly published feeds; the vig-free column removes the bookmaker's margin (the three-way book runs at roughly 103.6%). Odds move — always confirm the live price with your own bookmaker before staking.
Two independent model outputs put Leeds at 52.9%, the draw at 23.5% and Palace at 23.6% — see Dimers and Stats Insider. Notably, both of those models rate Palace higher than the market does (23.6% against a vig-free 21.0%), which is why Stats Insider flags the Palace win as a small-edge value play. Meanwhile the market rates Leeds slightly higher than the models do.
On goals the two sources disagree with each other, which is instructive: Dimers projects a 54.4% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55.2% chance of both teams scoring, while Stats Insider prefers the under at the prices available. The most likely single scorelines per the simulation are 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 Leeds (10.1%) and 2-1 Leeds (9.8%) — three outcomes separated by barely a percentage point. Writers at VegasOdds also side with the hosts.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction
Our prediction: Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace.
Five reasons we land there:
1. The defensive gap is the biggest edge on the card. Three goals conceded against eleven, and one clean sheet against none. Palace have conceded in every single league game this season.
2. Palace are four defensive bodies short. Disasi suspended, Riad out for the season, Henderson injured — and Mateta missing at the other end. A patched-back-four is exactly what a confident home side wants to face.
3. The turnaround. Thursday night European football into a Sunday lunchtime away trip is the single most reliable fatigue pattern in the Premier League calendar, and this is Palace's first season managing it.
4. Elland Road. Leeds have won four of the last five league meetings at home in this fixture, including 4-1 in December 2025, and have just beaten Newcastle 4-1 there.
5. But Palace will score. Six league goals in four, four against Lech Poznań, and a Leeds side that conceded six at Chelsea this month. A 2-0 is possible; a 2-1 is more honest.
Market | Selection | Reasoning | Confidence |
Correct score (main) | Leeds United 2-1 | Home edge plus Palace's inability to keep a clean sheet | ★★★ |
Match result | Leeds United win | Market 54% vig-free, models 52.9% — broadly agreed | ★★★★ |
Lower-risk alternative | Leeds or draw (double chance) | Covers the 1-1 the models rank most likely | ★★★★★ |
Both teams to score | Yes | Palace conceded in 4 of 4, Leeds conceded in 3 of 4 | ★★★ |
Total goals | Over 2.5 | Dimers 54.4%; note Stats Insider disagrees | ★★ |
Backup correct score | Leeds United 2-0 | If Palace fatigue shows early | ★★ |
Biggest danger | Draw 1-1 | The single most likely scoreline per simulation (11.1%) | — |
Value watch | Crystal Palace to score | Scoring has not been Palace's problem all season | ★★★★ |
The honest risk: our 2-1 is only the third most likely scoreline in the simulations, and the gap between it and a 1-1 draw is about one percentage point. Palace have already won away at Fulham this season and beat the Polish champions 4-0 three days ago, so a confident visiting performance is not far-fetched. If you want the lower-variance version of this view, the double chance is the sensible expression of it — not the correct score.
For the model's full correct-score distribution on this fixture, see AI Football for Correct Score (£99) or the more advanced Correct Score Football Software (£132). You can browse the full range of AI football prediction software here.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: frequently asked questions
What time does Leeds United vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace kicks off at 14:00 BST (09:00 ET) on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Elland Road, Leeds. The game is a Premier League matchweek 5 fixture and is televised in the UK by Sky Sports.
What is the prediction for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Our prediction is Leeds United 2-1 Crystal Palace. Leeds are unbeaten in the Premier League and have the third-best defensive record in the division, while Palace have conceded eleven goals in four league games and arrive on a three-day turnaround from Europa League duty.
Who is missing for Crystal Palace against Leeds United?
Axel Disasi is suspended after his red card against Ipswich Town. Chadi Riad is out for the season with a knee injury, Jean-Philippe Mateta is sidelined with a hamstring problem and goalkeeper Dean Henderson is out with a foot injury. Eddie Nketiah and Ismaïla Sarr are both doubts, though each featured against Lech Poznań.
Who is missing for Leeds United?
Joe Rodon is out with a thigh injury and Mateo Joseph is not expected back until 2027 after an ACL injury. Ilia Gruev is nearing a return and has played for the under-21s but is unlikely to be risked against Palace.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds United and Crystal Palace?
Leeds have won four of the last five league meetings at Elland Road. The most recent fixtures were a 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park in March 2026 and a 4-1 Leeds win at Elland Road in December 2025. Palace's last win in Leeds was a 5-1 victory in April 2023.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams scoring is a live possibility. Crystal Palace have conceded in all four of their Premier League games this season and Leeds have conceded in three of four. Simulation models put the probability of both teams scoring at around 55%.
Are Leeds United favourites against Crystal Palace?
Yes. Leeds are priced around 1.79 (-127), with the draw around 3.86 and Crystal Palace around 4.60. Removing the bookmaker margin, that is roughly 54% Leeds, 25% draw, 21% Palace. Independent models rate the fixture similarly but give Palace a slightly better chance than the market does.
Sources and further reading
18+ only. Betting predictions are opinion, not certainty, and no software can guarantee a winning bet. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
Understand the correct-score probabilities
For the broader method and its limitations, read our correct-score football prediction guide. It explains how to interpret model estimates and review evidence without assuming a guaranteed result.