Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Tips & Correct Score
Liverpool vs Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, is the headline fixture of Premier League matchday 6 — and it arrives with a storyline nobody wrote in August. Manchester City are the only club in the division with a 100% record: five games, five wins, 15 points. Liverpool are the only other side still unbeaten — yet they have taken nine points from fifteen and, remarkably, have not won a Premier League game at Anfield all season.
There is a second layer. Both clubs are in their first season under a new head coach — Andoni Iraola replaced Arne Slot at Liverpool in June 2026, and Enzo Maresca succeeded Pep Guardiola at Manchester City — so this is the first Anfield meeting of the fixture for either man in his current job. And City must do it without Phil Foden, who serves the third and final match of a suspension earned for violent conduct in the Manchester derby.
Below you will find team news taken from both clubs' own channels, the full form picture, the head-to-head record, the market price with the bookmaker margin stripped out, our own probability estimate, a tips table with an explicit AVOID row, and a prediction with a correct score at the end.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: match details at a glance
Detail | Information |
Fixture | Liverpool vs Manchester City |
Competition | Premier League 2026/27, matchday 6 |
Date | Sunday 11 October 2026 |
Kick-off | 16:30 BST |
Venue | Anfield, Liverpool |
Live coverage (UK) | Sky Sports |
Liverpool before kick-off | 6th — P5 W2 D3 L0, 7-4, 9 points |
Man City before kick-off | 1st — P5 W5 D0 L0, 13-5, 15 points |
Key absentee | Phil Foden (Man City) — suspended |
Our prediction | Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City |
Table: fixture details. Sources - Premier League fixture list and Football Web Pages league table, sampled 27 September 2026.
The angle: a perfect record, a stalled Anfield attack and a 21-day gap
Manchester City have won all five league games, scoring 13 and conceding 5. The away half of that record is the part that should worry Liverpool: in all competitions City have played three away matches this season and won all three, scoring seven and conceding one. They won 4-1 at Crystal Palace, 1-0 at Manchester United and 2-0 at Porto in the Champions League. Two of those three were clean sheets on the road.
Liverpool's problem is the mirror image. In the Premier League at Anfield they have played two, drawn two — 2-2 against Nottingham Forest and 0-0 against Fulham — scoring twice in 180 minutes of home league football. Their only home win in any competition this season was the 2-1 Champions League victory over Atletico Madrid on 9 September. Away from Anfield they look like a different team: three played, two won, one drawn, five scored, two conceded.
The third factor is rest. Both clubs last played on 20 September, and neither has a fixture before this one — that is a 21-day gap created by the international window. Nobody arrives tired. But the calendar is not symmetrical on the other side either: both teams return to the Champions League on 14 October, Liverpool away at LASK and City at home to Paris Saint-Germain. If one of these managers is tempted to hold something back for the Tuesday, it is far more likely to be Maresca than Iraola.
Liverpool team news: who is fit for Manchester City?
Liverpool's published injury list, last updated on 16 September, names four absentees and no suspensions. The international break was earmarked for two of them to rejoin full training, which is the single most useful thing the gap has given Iraola.
Player | Status | Detail |
Hugo Ekitike | Out | Ruptured Achilles sustained in April. Club targeting a possible January return. |
Conor Bradley | Out | Knee surgery after a January injury. Training alone, not yet with the group. |
Giovanni Leoni | Returning | ACL injury from September 2025. Due to rejoin team training over this international break. |
Federico Chiesa | Returning | Muscle problem. Expected back in team training on a similar timeline to Leoni. |
Joe Gomez | Available | Summer muscle injury; resumed team training in September. |
Table: Liverpool availability. Source - Liverpool FC official injury list, last updated 16 September 2026, with Iraola's fitness updates of 3 and 11 September.
Alexander Isak has scored four of Liverpool's seven league goals — both at Ipswich, the winner at Bournemouth and one against Forest. That is a healthy return for a centre-forward and an unhealthy dependence for a title challenger, and it is the number Iraola has three weeks to do something about.
Manchester City team news: Foden suspended, Doku a doubt
Phil Foden is suspended for this match. He was sent off by Michael Oliver in the Manchester derby on 13 September for violent conduct, after kicking out at Bruno Fernandes. The Premier League's Key Match Incidents panel reviewed it on 23 September and upheld the red card on a 3-2 split, two panellists preferring a yellow. The three-match ban covers Norwich in the Carabao Cup, Sunderland in the league and Liverpool at Anfield. Foden is available again for the Champions League tie with PSG on 14 October — one game too late.
Player | Status | Detail |
Phil Foden | Suspended | Third and final match of a ban for violent conduct in the Manchester derby. Returns v PSG, 14 October. |
Jeremy Doku | Doubt | Calf injury from the Community Shield against Arsenal. Maresca on 16 September: "very close", but "he needs some more days". |
Nico O'Reilly | Available | Back problem resolved; declared "100% available" before the derby and featured in it. |
Table: Manchester City availability. Sources - Manchester City official site (16 September) and the Premier League panel decision reported 23 September. Squads move - check the confirmed line-ups before kick-off.
Erling Haaland has five goals in five league games and has scored in four of the five, including the only goal at Old Trafford. Rayan Cherki has three. The caveat sits at the other end: City shipped three goals at home to Sunderland on 20 September and still won 5-3, which is the sort of scoreline that flatters an attack and quietly indicts a defence.
Form guide: Liverpool and Manchester City this season
Liverpool's last five Premier League matches
Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
23 Aug | Newcastle United | A | D 2-2 |
29 Aug | Nottingham Forest | H | D 2-2 |
4 Sep | Ipswich Town | A | W 2-0 |
12 Sep | Fulham | H | D 0-0 |
20 Sep | AFC Bournemouth | A | W 1-0 |
Table: Liverpool league form. Also played - Atletico Madrid (H) W 2-1, Champions League, 9 September. Source - Football Web Pages monthly results.
Manchester City's last five Premier League matches
Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
23 Aug | AFC Bournemouth | H | W 2-1 |
28 Aug | Crystal Palace | A | W 4-1 |
5 Sep | Coventry City | H | W 1-0 |
13 Sep | Manchester United | A | W 1-0 |
20 Sep | Sunderland | H | W 5-3 |
Table: Manchester City league form. Also played - Porto (A) W 2-0, Champions League, 8 September; Norwich City, Carabao Cup third round, 17 September. We covered the eight-goal Sunderland game in Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland: AI goals analysis.
The split that matters for Sunday: Liverpool's games have averaged 2.2 goals, City's 3.6. Three of Liverpool's five league games have finished with two goals or fewer. Three of City's five have gone over 2.5. When a low-scoring side hosts a high-scoring one, the goals market is genuinely a coin toss — and we say so in the tips table rather than pretending otherwise.
Liverpool vs Manchester City head-to-head record
Across all competitions the clubs have met 221 times: Liverpool 110 wins, 58 draws, Manchester City 63 wins. That historical edge is comfortably Liverpool's. The recent edge is not.
Date | Competition | Venue | Result |
Apr 2026 | FA Cup quarter-final | Etihad | Man City 4-0 Liverpool |
Feb 2026 | Premier League | Anfield | Liverpool 1-2 Man City |
Nov 2025 | Premier League | Etihad | Man City 3-0 Liverpool |
Feb 2025 | Premier League | Etihad | Man City 0-2 Liverpool |
Dec 2024 | Premier League | Anfield | Liverpool 2-0 Man City |
Table: recent meetings. Source - Sports Mole head-to-head record, last updated 4 April 2026.
City have won the last three meetings by an aggregate of 9-1, and — the detail that undercuts any romance about Anfield — they won at Anfield last season, 2-1 in February 2026. Whatever edge the ground used to give Liverpool in this fixture, the current City squad has already proved it can be beaten. Before that run, though, Liverpool had won the two previous meetings without conceding. Five matches, two clear swings: this is a fixture that moves in streaks, and streaks end.
Anfield, rest and context
Factor | Detail |
Venue | Anfield. Recent league attendances 60,415 v Forest and 60,160 v Fulham. |
Liverpool home, league | P2 W0 D2 L0 — 2 scored, 2 conceded |
Liverpool away, all comps | P3 W2 D1 L0 — 5 scored, 2 conceded |
Man City away, all comps | P3 W3 D0 L0 — 7 scored, 1 conceded |
Rest | Both clubs last played 20 September — 21 days before kick-off |
Next fixture | 14 October, Champions League: LASK v Liverpool; Man City v Paris Saint-Germain |
Suspension | Phil Foden (Man City) unavailable |
Table: match context. Sources - Football Web Pages results and league table, UEFA fixture lists, sampled 27 September 2026.
Liverpool vs Manchester City odds and what the market is really saying
Unlike several of the fixtures we have previewed this month, this one is priced. The figures below are best-available prices across bookmakers, sampled from Oddschecker on 27 September 2026. Because they are best-available rather than one firm's board, the margin comes out lower than any single bookmaker would offer you — that is a quirk of the comparison, not generosity.
Selection | Best odds | Decimal | Implied | Vig-free |
Liverpool | 17/10 | 2.70 | 37.0% | 35.7% |
Draw | 11/4 | 3.75 | 26.7% | 25.7% |
Manchester City | 6/4 | 2.50 | 40.0% | 38.6% |
Table: match-result market. Overround 103.7%. Odds are best-available across bookmakers on Oddschecker, sampled 27 September 2026 - prices move, so check the live board before you stake anything.
Strip the margin out and the market makes Manchester City narrow favourites away at Anfield — 38.6% against Liverpool's 35.7%. That is a striking price. It says the market has fully absorbed City's perfect start and Liverpool's blunt home form, and has not discounted much for Foden's absence.
Our own estimate
Here is where we differ, and the reasoning is stated so you can disagree with it. We think the market is under-pricing the draw and slightly over-pricing City. Three of Liverpool's five league games have been drawn, including both at home. City lose a first-choice creator to suspension and may still be without Doku. And City's defence has conceded in four of its five league games.
Outcome | Market (vig-free) | Our estimate | Our fair odds |
Liverpool win | 35.7% | 37% | 2.70 |
Draw | 25.7% | 28% | 3.57 |
Manchester City win | 38.6% | 35% | 2.86 |
Table: our probability estimate versus the vig-free market. This is our model's view, not a bookmaker price. The only selection where our number beats the available price is the draw - 11/4 offered against a fair 3.57.
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Liverpool vs Manchester City betting tips
Market | Selection | Reasoning | Confidence |
Match result | Draw (11/4) | The only selection where our estimate (28%) beats the available price (26.7%). Liverpool have drawn three of five, including both home games. | Medium |
Double chance | Liverpool or draw | Liverpool are unbeaten, City are without Foden, and the safer expression of the same view if you dislike backing a draw outright. | Medium |
Total goals | Under 3.5 | Liverpool's games average 2.2 goals. City's away defence has conceded once in three. We deliberately take the 3.5 line, not 2.5 - City's games have averaged 3.6. | Medium |
Anytime scorer | Erling Haaland | Five goals in five league games, scoring in four of them, including the winner at Old Trafford. | Medium-high |
AVOID | Liverpool to win to nil | City have scored in all five league games and in all three away matches in all competitions. A clean sheet against them is not a 2026/27 trend. | Avoid |
AVOID | Man City -1 handicap | Three of City's five league wins were by a single goal. The margin is not there even when the result is. | Avoid |
Table: our tips. Odds move constantly - always check the live price before you stake, and never take a figure in any preview, ours included, as the price you will actually get.
Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction and correct score
Two things can be true at once, and here they are. Liverpool win is the single most likely outcome bucket on our numbers at 37%. But the most likely individual scoreline is a draw, because both sides' recent scorelines cluster low and Liverpool have not managed more than two goals in a home league game all season.
City arrive as the better team on current evidence, and the market agrees. Against that: they lose Foden, they may lose Doku, three of their five wins were by a single goal, and they have a Champions League tie with PSG three days later. Liverpool get their most settled week of the season, two long-term absentees back in training, and a crowd that has watched two goalless-feeling home draws and wants something else.
Our prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City.
Our call | Selection |
Correct score | Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City |
Alternative scores | 1-2, 2-1, 0-1 |
Match result | Draw - the value selection at 11/4 |
Both teams to score | Yes |
Total goals | Under 3.5 |
Best value play | The draw, or Liverpool-or-draw double chance as the cautious version |
Table: prediction summary for Liverpool v Manchester City, Anfield, 11 October 2026.
The honest risks in this prediction
We would rather name the weaknesses than let you find them at 18:20 on Sunday.
Form says City, clearly. A 100% record and a perfect away record are not noise after five games. Backing against them is a contrarian position and should be sized like one.
Foden's absence may be worth less than it feels. City have won five without needing him to be decisive; Haaland and Cherki have carried the scoring.
Liverpool's home numbers may be a small sample. Two games is two games. A 0-0 against Fulham and a 2-2 against Forest is thin evidence for a structural problem.
Our probabilities are an estimate. They are our model's view, not a market price, and the gap we claim on the draw is roughly two percentage points - real, but not large.
Team news will change. This was written 14 days out. Doku's fitness, any international-duty injuries and both managers' rotation calls are all still unknown.
More Premier League previews and analysis
If this was useful, we cover the Premier League every week: Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland goals analysis, Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction, and Man City vs Sunderland prediction and correct score tips. Internationals are covered too - see our England vs Czechia prediction.
Liverpool vs Manchester City FAQ
What time is Liverpool vs Manchester City and where is it played?
Kick-off is 16:30 BST on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Anfield, in Premier League matchday 6. UK coverage is on Sky Sports.
What is your Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction?
We predict Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City. The draw is our value selection at 11/4, with Liverpool-or-draw double chance as the more cautious version of the same view.
Is Phil Foden playing against Liverpool?
No. Foden is suspended - this is the third and final match of a three-game ban for violent conduct in the Manchester derby on 13 September, upheld by the Premier League's Key Match Incidents panel on a 3-2 split. He returns for the Champions League tie with PSG on 14 October.
What are the Liverpool vs Manchester City odds?
Best-available prices on 27 September 2026 were Liverpool 17/10, draw 11/4, Manchester City 6/4. Stripping out the 103.7% overround gives 35.7% / 25.7% / 38.6%. Prices move - check the live board.
Who has the better head-to-head record, Liverpool or Manchester City?
Liverpool lead the all-time series 110 wins to 63 in 221 meetings, with 58 draws. Recent history is the opposite: City have won the last three, including 2-1 at Anfield in February 2026.
Why have Liverpool not won at home this season?
Liverpool have played two Premier League games at Anfield and drawn both - 2-2 with Nottingham Forest and 0-0 with Fulham, scoring twice in 180 minutes. Their only home win in any competition was 2-1 against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 9 September.
Will there be a lot of goals in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
It is genuinely balanced, which is why we take the 3.5 line rather than 2.5. Liverpool's league games have averaged 2.2 goals; City's have averaged 3.6. Three of Liverpool's five went under 2.5; three of City's five went over it.
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